Property Price Summary and Analysis for September 2012

publication date: Nov 1, 2012
 | 
author/source: Kate Faulkner, Property Expert and Author of Which? Property Books
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Property Price Summary and Analysis for September 2012


We track over eight monthly reports on property prices produced on a monthly basis. This report summarises what the reports say about the market and Kate Faulkner comments on what this means for consumers.

Report Headlines:-

Acadametricsxx"House sales fall as prices dip during September"
Land Registry"September shows a monthly decrease of 0.3 per cent"
Nationwide  "UK house prices slip back a little in September"
Smart New Homes"East beats west as new home prices see Autumn lift"
Hometrack "Time to sell jumps as housing demand weakens" 
RICS   "Stable market in September but sales expectations improve"
Rightmove  "'Northern Rock' five years on - who are the winners and losers?" 

Kate Faulkner comments:
"Often the key property price reports show some rises and some falls, so this is a rare month when all the indices, bar the RICS and Smart New Homes, suggest property prices are on the slide. This isn't unusual after the summer period. Few people worry about buying  a home and more tend to be moving in, so demand fell in favour of either watching the Olympics or having a ‘getaway from it all holiday' during the summer months. It's likely that in the main, prices will continue to drift downwards towards Xmas and we won't really start to see a pick up until 2013."

New Home Property Prices

PeriodPrice
Smart New HomesxxSeptember 2012xx £238,849

Kate Faulkner comments:
"New homes are pretty much holding their own and have been for the last few years. Although the government has tried to spark new activity in the first time buyer sector, few seem to have taken them up on their offer. This is partly due to few lenders seeming to rush to back these initiatives. "

Regional Property Price Differences

Acadametricsxxxxx"London is the only region in England & Wales recording an above average price increase,
with the other nine regions all falling below the 2.3% average rate"
  
Land Registry"The region with the greatest annual price fall is the North East with a movement of -3.2 per
cent. Wales experienced the greatest monthly price rise with a movement of 0.5 per cent"
Hometrack"No region registered price increases in September. House prices were static in London and the
south west and fell in all other region"
RICS"Encouragingly, the relative improvement in sales and price expectations was also fairly broad
based at the regional level. However, as of now, London remains the only region where more
surveyors are reporting price rises rather than falls"
 
RightmoveCredit-crunch losers include: Cash-strapped north -
"The challenges for the market are considerable in many parts of the country, but they are even
greater in the north with its 
residents having not recently benefitted from the same equity gains
of their southern counterparts"

Kate Faulkner comments:
"At a regional level there are vast differences in property price trends. Some properties in Nottingham for example are selling out at the same price they bought at back in 2002, whereas a property in prime parts of Central London will have grown exponentially, despite the credit crunch and thanks to international buyers heading for a safe haven.

However, bear in mind that averages, even at a regional level, don't necessarily reflect the local market for the type of property or area you buying in. It's vital to source your market information from local expert agents who are selling and letting property."

Demand for Property

Acadametricsxxxxx"We estimate that the number of property transactions completed in the month fell by 24%,
to just under 50,000 sales"
  
Land Registry"The number of property transactions has decreased over the last year"  
Hometrack"Demand has fallen for the last four consecutive months with September registering the largest
fall at -3.6%. Demand in September fell across all regions. This is in contrast to the start of the
year when between February and May the number of people registering with agents rose by 25%"
Rightmove "Demand has held up better in the south and has outstripped supply in many localities. In London
in particular, property owners have seen their housing assets increase in value and been clear
‘credit-crunch winners'
" 

Kate Faulkner comments:
"With most confidence indexes showing consumers are feeling the pinch financially and are not too keen to make major purchases, then it's not a surprise that demand for property has dipped back. Buyers are easily put off by bad news these days, unless they have to move, so the market can be quite fickle and volatile. It's likely most people will now focus on how to get through Year 5 of the credit crunch over the Xmas period, rather than contemplate their next big move."

Supply of Property

Hometrackxx"Slowing demand is typically followed by tightening supply. September saw the first monthly
decline in supply (-0.9%) following seven months of growth"
 
Nationwide "A number of metrics suggest that UK housing supply remains low relative to demand"
RICS
"On the activity front, the numbers in September bounced around a little bit (instructions and
enquiries increased a touch, agreed sales fell slightly) but they are overall consistent with a
flat picture"
  
Rightmove"2012's extended summer holiday period has left new sellers' asking prices almost the same
as a year ago and, intriguingly, five years ago too. In truth, the state of the housing market is
little different now to this time last year, and prices have stagnated as neither buyers or sellers
have been forced to change their behaviours in sufficient quantities to stimulate greater
activity"
 
Smart New Homes"The number of new homes available to buy grew in September but was still less than half the
number in July"

Kate Faulkner comments:
"As most buyers in today's market form part of the seller community, if demand dips, rather than supply increasing, it usually follows a similar trend. If the economy continues to survive without too many job losses (and it appears the growth over the summer was a blip) then property prices are likely to remain stable as demand and supply match. However, if we get too much bad job market news and interest and/or mortgage rates start to rise, this could cause the market to slip even further in 2013."   

For more information, property market commentary for consumers and one-to-one consumer property advice, contact:


Kate Faulkner, Manager Director, Designs on Property Ltd Property Market Analyst and Commentator Websites: Designs on PropertyKate Faulkner and Property Checklists
Email: kate@designsonproperty.co.ukTelephone: 07974 750562   


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