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House Price Market Update for November 2010

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November property prices and volumes continue to show a 'depressed' picture from a 'national' perspective. The number of properties available for sale has started to slide slightly as potential sellers worry more about getting through Christmas rather than putting their properties on the market.

Past Indicators
The year on year growth in property prices in 2010 versus 2009 are, as predicted, being eroded by a lack of growth in the second half of this year. So the reported '10% increases' in the first half of the year are now down to just a few percent nationally. The most accurate reporting for 'past indicators' is the Land Registry, which shows October's average property price is £165,505 versus £160,118 in 2009, only a £5k difference. The highest difference year on year was May 2010 versus 2009 of just over £13,000.

Current Indicators
The best indicators of what's happening now is to look at the supply and demand aspects such as number of properties coming onto the market and whether buyers are on the increase or decrease. The supply of properties is on the decline, with Rightmove stats suggesting each agent has an average of 74 properties, down from the near 80 in the summer. 

Buyers too are on the decline as we head towards Christmas with Hometrack showing a 4% decline in the number of buyers registering to find properties.

Despite the falls in stock and buyers, the number of properties being sold per agent (NAEA) hasn't changed and remains at approximately seven with the number of sold versus for sale boards remaining at around 25% versus a long term average of 40%. 

Future Indicators
Confidence and volume hold the key to what will happen in the property market in the future. Land Registry figures show sales are up for properties over £300,000, suggesting those who are equity rich are able to continue to move and those with 'average' property values will probably struggle for the next few years as they can't secure finance nor gain equity through property price growth.

From a confidence perspective, media talk of falling property prices and the 'doom and gloom' reporting following spending cuts is likely to keep property activity and prices down for the next few months from a national perspective.

READ MORE - Read Kate's latest summary on the property market and find out what's happening in your area, ignore the headlines, let Kate help you work it out for yourself. READ MORE

What should Buyers and Sellers do in 2011?


Buyers typically either take a 'back seat' in looking for properties up until Christmas unless they really have to move, in which case they can be highly motivated purchasers, keen to get a deal to ensure they move into their new home as soon as possible in the New Year.

As such, it's likely that property prices and volumes for November and December are likely to be depressed versus 2009 as last year's incentive of beating the stamp duty increase isn't around and although the VAT rise will affect costs of buying and selling, it won't be significant enough to encourage people to purchase.  

For anyone that has a property for sale or is looking to buy a property now and in 2011, it is worth taking time out over the Christmas period to consider their finances and future and whether this really is the right time to buy and sell.

Performance and commentary since January 2009:-

Jan 10Feb 10Mar 10Apr 10 May 10Jun 10Jul 10Aug 10Sep 10Oct 10  
Jan 09Feb 09Mar 09Apr 09May 09Jun 09Jul 09Aug 09Sep 09Oct 09Nov 09Dec 09

Click here to see our latest buying/selling articles

Headline Statistics for November 2010

Headline Statistics

Statistics

+/-

Source

Month

Average Prices

£165,505 to £229,379

+3.4% to +1.3% YoY

Land Registry Lowest
Rightmove Highest

Oct/Nov data

Transactions*

59,512*

+7% YoY

Land Registry

May to Aug 10

Time to Sell

9.8 Weeks

Slightly up on last month

Hometrack

November

Number of viewings to sale

12

No change from last month

Hometrack

November

Offer to Market Price

92.4%

Slight reduction on last month

Hometrack

November

% change in new buyers registering with agents

-4.3%

A decrease on last month

Hometrack

November

No of houses sold by agents

7

No change on previous month

NAEA

October

% sold versus for sale boards

24.8%

Slightly up on last month

For Sale Sign Analysis

November

Number of new mortgages

47,315

A decrease on last month

Bank of England

October


*  Per month

Sold versus For Sale Sign Boards data*


Month 2010

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Percentage
Sold

26%

26.4%

25.4%

26.5%

30.9%

25.5%

26%

25.8%

22.3%

24.4%

24.8%

Month 2009

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Percentage
Sold

16%

12%

17%

19.5%

21.1%

28.3%

29.5%

30.2%

36.3%

27.3%

31%

34%

26.7%


*Data provided by FSSA, for more information on this data, Contact us

Links to useful Buying and Selling Reports

Price Indices
There are at least seven property indices and other companies that comment on the property market, please checkout the links below:-

Rightmove    Halifax    Nationwide   RICS 
Communities    Financial Times    Land Registry

Other Useful Resources
Hometrack    NAEA    RICS    Savills    Knight Frank

DOWNLOAD Savills Residential Property Focus for Winter 2010

For more market commentary on a national or local level:-
Contact Kate Faulkner on 07974 750562 or 0845 838 1763. To read more about Kate, please visit ABOUT US, see Kate on video and for media appearances, contact:

Sylvia Tidy-Harris
STH Management                    
Tel  +44 (0) 1530 263221
Mob  +44 (0) 7970 646872
Fax: +44 (0) 1530 264018

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